In national elections, Turkey’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) headed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan suffered its first electoral defeat since coming to power in 2002, Agence France-Presse reported Sunday.

The result has scuttled Erdogan’s plan to push through the constitutional changes he yearns for to create a presidential system that would give him greater powers.

Erdogan, 61, who served as premier from 2003 and then became president in 2014, is lauded by his supporters as a transformative figure who modernised Turkey and handed power back to the people from the secular and military elite.

But in the last two years he has become an increasingly divisive figure, hated by large numbers of secular Turks who see him as an autocrat bent on Islamising the country.

In an analysis of the vote, Sonor Cagaptay, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and head of its Turkish Studies Program, mapped out possible governing coalition combinations and explained some of the implications of the vote.

For Erdogan: His ambitions to become Turkey’s first executive-style president have been vetoed by the electorate. The MHP, CHP, and HDP have all ruled out the status quo — whereby Erdogan effectively runs the country behind the scenes — as a precondition for entering a coalition government with the AKP. His party may still form a government or come back as the majority party in likely early elections, but Erdogan’s presidential ambitions are now exhausted. Nevertheless, he will continue his efforts to run the AKP and pursue an executive-style presidency, albeit with different tactics — especially if early elections usher in a more pro-Erdogan alignment.

For short-term Turkish politics: No coalition or minority government in Turkey has ever finished its term, and the country usually witnesses political and economic crises when such governments fail as a result of bickering between coalition partners. Should Turkey enter a period of political or economic instability under a coalition government or during the forty-five-day formation process, the public may be swayed to support a single-party AKP government again in early elections. Conversely, the opposition could paint the AKP as the problem, increasing its own support in such elections.

For long-term Turkish politics: The results have proven that Turkey is too big and diverse for President Erdogan, the AKP, or any other party to control singlehandedly. The economic miracle that Erdogan ushered in over the past decade has become his nemesis. He helped make Turkey a middle-class society, but that constituency has now found a voice in the parliament through the Kurdish-liberal alliance and the CHP. The liberals are Erdogan’s greatest long-term challenge. With a record number of women (who now constitute nearly 20 percent of the legislature), young members, and ethnic, religious, and political minorities (e.g., Armenians), this will be the most diverse Turkish parliament ever.

There were predictions late last year that the increased corruptions and repression in recent years under Erdogan could lead to a Turkish spring.

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