Saturation polling, which combined with powerful modeling to reflect a remarkably stable horse-race throughout the 2012 U.S. election, is also casting doubt on speculation of variability in Israel’s upcoming January 22 election. The entrance of former foreign minister Tzipi Livni into the race earlier this week as the head of a new “The Movement” party was immediately described by some analysts as a game changer. In contrast polls commissioned by every major Israeli newspaper, the three main television stations, and the political parties themselves converge on a comfortable win for the center-right Likud party of incumbent Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. One of the most recent results had the Likud winning 39 of the 120 seats in Israel’s parliament, almost double the next closest party.

[Photo: David Shankbone / Wiki Commons]