A new report has dramatically reduced estimates of how far Iran is from nuclear breakout, declaring that the Tehran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium to arm a nuclear bomb within two to four months. The report comes from the Institute for Science and International Security, a thinktank led by former United Nations IAEA nuclear inspector David Albright that specializes in technical analyses of nuclear proliferation programs. The ISIS report noted that while Iran might still face “engineering challenges” on the way to a fully operational nuclear weapon, its “current trajectory at Fordow is increasing the chance of a military confrontation.”

Further Iranian efforts to reduce transparency around its nuclear program, such as the country’s recent suggestions that it will curtail work with the IAEA, are likely to increase risks of a military confrontation even further. . Foreign Policy CEO and Editor-at-Large David Rothkopf recently outlined the logistics and probability of one scenario for such a confrontation, a joint U.S.-Israeli “surgical strike” that policymakers may be converging upon.

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