Lebanon’s delicately built sectarian electoral system — which seeks to balance representation across the country’s 17 officially recognized religious sects, and which is so fragile that Lebanon has not held a census since 1932 — is in danger of an out-and-out collapse. The country’s prime minister dissolved the country’s government on Friday. Much of the instability is being driven by the Iran-backed terror group Hezbollah:
Under Lebanese rules the prime minister must be a Sunni, the president a Maronite Christian, and parliament’s speaker a Shia. The reality is that Lebanon’s Shias, bolstered by the might of Hizbullah, their main party-cum-militia, have in recent years emerged as the strongest force… As Mr Assad has weakened, Hizbullah has felt increasingly threatened, while Sunni rage has grown. With Lebanese elections scheduled for June, Mr Mikati found himself parrying demands that were sure to alienate his Sunni constituents. Hizbullah’s camp insisted on changing electoral rules to its advantage and on replacing the chief of Lebanon’s internal security, a powerful Sunni due soon to retire, with a more malleable figure. Increasingly frequent clashes between Sunni militants and pro-Syrian gunmen underlined the hazard, in Mr Mikati’s eyes, of tampering with Lebanon’s tenuous arrangements. His resignation increases this danger.
Mikati announced the resignation of his cabinet after officials were unable to secure the extension of Internal Security Forces chief Ashraf Rifi, who was widely seen as one of the last major opponents of Hezbollah inside Lebanon’s security forces (another key intelligence official opposed to the Iran-backed terror group, general Wissam al-Hassan, was assassinated last October).
The Europeans meanwhile expressed “concern” that Mikati’s resignation would undermine Lebanese political institutions at a time when “security incidents continue to test the stability of the country.” U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged all sides to respect the legal military authorities in Lebanon, a not particularly coded reference to the mini-statelet that Hezbollah maintains in Lebanon’s south.
Mikati had led the Lebanese government since former Prime Minister Saad Hariri was removed from power in early 2011 in the aftermath of Hezbollah electoral victories. Mikati had worked to keep Lebanon neutral in what has long been a proxy war inside Syria between regional Sunni countries and the Iran-backed Damascus regime. Hezbollah went all-in on supporting the regime and eventually generated rebel retaliation into Lebanon.
The Syrian conflict has deepened sectarian divisions in Lebanon in another way. The country has been flooded by refugees, among whom are forces more concerned with extending the Syrian conflict than escaping it:
Lebanon’s interior minister said on Thursday that refugees who have fled from the war in neighboring Syria have become a threat to Lebanon’s security because of the suspicion that many are in fact rebel fighters. Residents in northern Lebanon say that rebels pose as refugees to cross the border, and are arming members of the refugee community in Lebanon to fight in Syria. The minister, Marwan Charbel, has said Syrian rebels have set up training camps in Lebanon… “What is concerning me is the security situation,” Charbel said at a joint news conference with the United Nations Development Programme. “Who is exploiting (the Syrian refugees)? Who is arming them? We are not controlling them.”
[Photo: Monika Flueckiger, World Economic Forum / Wiki Commons]
