Diplomacy

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New Estimates, Political Maneuvers Call Into Question Viability of Syria Chemical Weapons Deal

Intelligence officials and world leaders are expressing renewed doubts about the potential for Syria’s chemical arsenal to be safely secured and destroyed, amid newly published figures describing Syria’s stockpile and political maneuvering by actors involved in the crisis.

The Executive Council of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, the international community’s chemical weapons watchdog, today postponed meeting to discuss the recently inked Kerry-Lavrov plan to destroy the arsenal.

The announcement came after Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed doubts over whether all of Syria’s chemical weapons assets would be seized, a statement widely read as a bait-and-switch maneuver under which the Bashar al-Assad would be allowed to keep some of his stockpile:

Russian President Vladimir Putin said he cannot be 100% sure that the government of Bashar Assad will comply with the deal to destroy its chemical arms, but added that he still sees reason for hope.

Western diplomats have at times demanded that any deal preserve the option to use force against Damascus, a requirement that Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Muqdad on Wednesday predicted would fail to pass in the United Nations:

Syria is confident that the United Nations will not adopt a resolution on its chemical weapons under Chapter VII, which could allow the use of force, Syria’s deputy foreign minister said on Wednesday.

“I think this is a big lie used by the Western powers; we believe it will never be used,” said Faisal Muqdad.

A declassified French intelligence report indicated that Syria has over 1,000 tons of chemical agents, and Assad this week estimated that removing them would take at least a year and cost one billion dollars. He suggested that the U.S. should foot the bill.

[Photo: RogDel / Wiki Commons]