A string of recent developments and revelations in the Middle East has refocused attention on the degree to which a long-time national security priority of the United States – ensuring that Israel maintains its so-called Qualitative Military Edge (QME) in the region – is being eroded. The Israel Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) this week published its insidery The Military Balance 2014 report, documenting among other things that Saudi Arabia has risen to #4 in global defense spending, 10 slots ahead of Israel. Video of IISS Director-General John Chipman discussing the report and its main themes is here. Jonathan Schanzer, vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), last Monday published an assessment evaluating a dozen regional trends and concluding that while “the balance of power in the Middle East is getting increasingly difficult to determine,” there are indicators that Israel’s “vaunted qualitative edge” – especially and specifically in the context of air power – “may now be diminishing.”
The Saudis are opening their checkbooks for high-end Western military equipment. The Saudi defense budget, the seventh largest in the world, has increased by 111 percent between 2003 and 2012. The build-up is designed to deter new threats originating out of Iran — not Israel, for a change. And Riyadh’s buying spree doesn’t show any signs of trailing off in the years ahead — particularly when it comes to air power. The Saudis are now waiting on orders for the first-rate Typhoon and F-15 fighters from Britain and the United States, and they are modernizing their existing F-15 and Tornado fleet. The Israeli Air Force, by contrast, relies on F-15 and F-16 fighters that are more than a decade old, even with some spiffy modifications. In other words, for Israel, its vaunted qualitative edge in the air may now be diminishing.
Schanzer also revealed that FDD has “spent the last six months compiling data for a new website that helps visitors to visualize the complex balance of power the Middle East,” and has created a site that “allows users to compare open-source data on armaments and capabilities by country or by coalition” in order to understand the shifting dynamics. That website is here.
[Photo: Alex92287 / Flickr]