Analysis of Friday and Sunday air strikes on Syria, which were widely attributed to Israel, is converging on the signal of “strategic clarity” sent by whoever ordered the strikes. Foundation for Defense of Democracies research fellow Tony Badran notes that there has been “confusion in some of the media commentary” regarding the goals and significance of the events, and emphasizes that they sent a very precise signal about the nature of threats in the region:

The Israeli raids provide much needed strategic clarity to the conflict in Syria… There’s been some confusion in some of the media commentary as to the purpose and meaning of Israel’s aerial attack in Syria. However, the targets – long-range rockets and ballistic missiles storage sites – are enough of a clue to understand Israel’s objective. The Israeli government’s calculus is rather clear: It will not allow the transfer of Iranian strategic weapons to Hezbollah. In other words, in contrast with the Obama administration, Israel is thinking about the regional balance of power – which is being fought out in Syria – in strategic terms.

Israel has long emphasized its double red line regarding the Syrian conflict: Jerusalem will act against the transfer of advanced game-changing weapons to Syria’s Hezbollah allies and against the seizure of those weapons by Al Qaeda-linked rebel forces seeking to overthrow the Bashar al-Assad regime.

The most salient danger now, according to analysts, is the former. Tehran appears to have made a strategic decision not just to bolster the Assad regime, but to use it as a pretext for functionally taking over Lebanon. The Islamic republic has become a central, strategic priority in the Syrian conflict:

in targeting Iranian surface-to-surface missiles destined for Hezbollah, Israel made clear that chemical weapons are not the only, or perhaps even the most significant, arms of concern on the ground in Syria. Second, in interdicting Iranian arms shipments at their point of entry at the Damascus airport Friday and, on Sunday, targeting a dozen sites around Damascus housing Iranian weapons and guarded by IRGC personnel, Israel has underscored the fact that it considers Tehran, not al-Qaeda, to be its strategic priority. It is these two issues—strategic weapons and Iran—that should inform American thinking on Syria, and the region more generally.

[Photo: FreedomHouse / Flickr]