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Analysts, Diplomats Raise Doubts Over Moscow-Facilitated Syria Chemical Weapons Bargain

Confusion swirled throughout the day as to the nature and scope of a series of Russian-facilitated deals designed to defuse the international crisis triggered by what is widely suspected to be the use of chemical weapons by the Bashar al-Assad regime. NBC News reported that by day’s end Damascus “appeared poised to accept the Russian proposal for Syria to hand over chemical weapons” and to join the Chemical Weapons Convention. In what Washington Post foreign affairs writer Jackson Diehl called a flat-out trap, Russia President Vladimir Putin demanded that any Syrian proposal be accompanied by a U.S. commitment not to use force against the Assad regime, with which Moscow is allied.

It is unclear whether Washington would be willing to issue such a guarantee. It is also unclear if a robust inspection team designed to enforce a deal could be installed and enforced in Syria. Foreign Policy noted the difficulties involved:

Syria has dozens of chemical weapons facilities, many of them moveable, and the U.S. intelligence community would have a hard time knowing where more than a fraction of the sites were at any one time.

Reuters emphasized that in addition to the normal problems which inspectors face when confronting dictatorial regimes – the Iraqis, for instance, “lied through their teeth” according to non-proliferation expert Amy Smithson – it “would be difficult” to protect arms inspectors:

“This is a nice idea but tough to achieve,” said one U.S. official speaking on condition of anonymity.

“You’re in the middle of a brutal civil war where the Syrian regime is massacring its own people. Does anyone think they’re going to suddenly stop the killing to allow inspectors to secure and destroy all the chemical weapons?” the official said.

Moreover fears that negotiations could be used by the regime to stall for time have been broadly aired, including by officials from the Syrian oppositionGulf states, and Israel.

Bahraini Foreign Minister Sheikh Khaled Al-Khalifa instead called on the United Nations to take what referred to as “necessary deterrent measures” against the regime, echoing calls made on Monday by Saudi officials urging the international community to “assume its humanitarian responsibility to rescue the Syrian people.”

[Photo: ABC News / YouTube]