Although the final votes have yet to be tallied, a consensus among Israeli political commentators emerged Tuesday evening suggesting that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party may enjoy a significant edge in forming the next Israeli government–with Channel 2’s Ilana Dayan going as far as calling the election in Likud’s favor.
Two of the three Israeli television channels adjusted their exit polls late Tuesday in a way that favors a Likud-led coalition: Channel 1 adjusted to give 4 seats to the far-right Yahad party, led by former Shas head Eli Yishai, which had previously been thought not to have passed the threshold. Seats were taken away from Zionist Union, Kulanu, Yesh Atid, and Jewish Home. Later, Channel 10’s exit poll adjusted to reduce the Zionist Union’s total form 27 to 26, and raise Avigdor Lieberman’s Israel Beitenu from 5 to 6 seats.
The result of the exit polls points to an easier and potentially more stable coalition on the right, despite the apparent dead heat between the two main parties. This is based on the fact that many of the smaller parties appear significantly closer to Likud and more easily will agree to share a government with each other. Creating a government led by Herzog, by contrast, would require a more strained set of coalition agreements and in all likelihood a less stable government over time–which is the crucial consideration that will guide President Reuven Rivlin’s decision as to who will make the first attempt at building a coalition.
The most likely Likud-led coalition would include Jewish Home (Bennett), Shas, United Torah Judaism, Israel Beitenu (Lieberman), Kulanu (Kahlon) and (if it crosses the threshold) the far-right Yahad. None of these parties have ruled out such a coalition, and all of them can be described as being fairly hawkish on defense and security issues.
By contrast, a Herzog-led coalition would most likely join the Zionist Union together with the far-Left Meretz, Yesh Atid (Lapid), the Joint (Arab) List, and either Kulanu or Shas. But Kahlon has declared himself to be a part of the National Camp, making his joining forces with Meretz a difficult thing, and seating the ultra-Orthodox Shas with the ultra-Secular Yesh Atid and Meretz would be a tough match. Add to it the fact that Shas’ leader, Aryeh Der’i, already declared his preference for Netanyahu. Further exacerbating the trouble is that the Joint List would most likely not formally join the government but instead merely refrain from voting for no-confidence votes — making the entire process of governing with a minority-sized coalition particularly challenging. The Joint List list, it should be emphasized, comprises 3 separate Arab parties, each of which could effectively enable the collapse of the government.
We should not rule out the possibility of a unity government joining both Likud and the Zionist Union. This is both precedented and could make sense based on policy–both parties take a hard line on Iran and have declared their commitment to reducing the cost of living for ordinary Israelis. However leaders of both parties have ruled out such a government, and it seems more likely at this stage that coalition-builders will use the prospect of a unity government more as a means of gaining leverage in negotiations rather than as an actual preferred coalition option.
These calculations could change in the hours and days ahead as the actual vote counts are finalized.