Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was seriously injured in a March airstrike in western Iraq by the American-led coalition forces, The Guardian reported Tuesday. In recent weeks, rumors have circulated about al-Baghdadi’s death, but as of yet they have been unproven.
Regardless of the rumors, al-Baghdadi’s disappearance from the public spotlight has raised questions (Arabic link) about his ability to lead ISIS at a time when his group is suffering heavy losses. It seems that the organization’s leadership is aware of this issue, and has already held several meetings to discuss a future heir to the undisputed leader.
If the reports are true and al-Baghdadi was so severely injured that he can no longer lead the organization, this does not mean that ISIS has been defeated. The organization’s structure is very stable and includes several departments, including media operations, a military council, a religious council, a security council, and a ministry of finance. According to many experts, ISIS’s bureaucracy runs like a well-oiled machine. The organization is supported by Sunni jihadist militias throughout the Middle East that have sworn allegiance to the ISIS terrorists.
Although the charismatic al-Baghdadi led the group to some significant achievements in Syria and Iraq, there are many candidates who can replace him. The organization has a clear procedure for selecting a replacement, and al-Baghdadi has numerous deputies, officers, and consultants to choose from. The ISIS Shura Council, which includes ten people who advise the self-appointed caliph, will choose the next leader.
The successor of al-Baghdadi will try to prove himself, but he is not expected to change the current policy or structure of the organization. It is possible that he may make even more extreme and ruthless moves. The heir will also have to prove his knowledge in religious studies and impress the Shura Council, knowing that al-Baghdadi has a PhD in Islamic studies.
Among the names mentioned as possible successors include Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, a senior spokesman for ISIS, who is also considered al-Baghdadi’s right-hand man; Abu Ahmed al-Alwani, one of the heads of the ISIS military council; Abu Ali al-Anbari, a former Iraqi intelligence officer who heads the organization’s security council; and Abu Arkan al-Amari, the head of the Shura Council. Al-Anbari is one of several former members of the Saddam Hussein regime who advises al-Baghdadi.
Problems are likely to arise if the Shura Council does not reach an agreement on a replacement for al-Baghdadi. Such a situation could lead to chaos and infighting within ISIS. A charismatic and pious leader like al-Baghdadi would be hard to find, and following in his footsteps would not be simple. For this reason, the organization is not expected to announce the death of al-Baghdadi, when it happens, until after an heir is elected.
[Photo: BBC News / YouTube ]