Diplomacy

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Lausanne Dispatch: Israeli Ex-General Calls Emerging Nuclear Deal “Extremely Dangerous”

The framework agreement currently taking shape in Lausanne, Switzerland is “extremely dangerous,” Brigadier General (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, former chief of the research division in IDF Military Intelligence and former Director General of the Israeli Ministry of Strategic Affairs, said Sunday in a conference call hosted by The Israel Project. The Israel Project publishes The Tower. An audio of the call is embedded below.

Rumored Western concessions mean that the agreement “would enable Iran to be a threshold nuclear state that, in the time of its choosing, will be able to cross this threshold within a relatively short period of time, and maybe without even being noticed on time to enable the international community to take the necessary to stop it before it reaches a nuclear weapon,” Kuperwasser said.

Kuperwasser gestured toward suggestions that a deal would circumscribe Iran’s ability to project power throughout the region, emphasizing instead that the assessment among American allies was that the deal would trigger a Sunni backlash. The result would be a scenario of cascading regional proliferation and “a nuclear arms race that would, in all practical meaning, put an end to the NPT [Non-Proliferation Treaty].”

A concession first reported earlier this week by the Associated Press – in which Iran would be allowed to continue spinning centrifuges at its underground military bunker at Fordow – has become a subject of particular concern. Kuperwasser called the rumored cave-in by the West “the most important source of concern for Israel.” He continued, “Nobody builds a facility 60 meters underground that can host…3,000 centrifuges for any other purpose but military.” The AP subsequently reported that the Iranians were continuing to insist on a range of positions that were hampering efforts to reach an agreement.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that the Western powers had scaled back their demands for Iranian disclosure about the possible military dimensions (PMD) of their nuclear program. Kuperwasser expressed skepticism that the Iranians would allow inspectors access to sites “any place, any time, without any limitations,” which would be necessary for a good deal: “If the Iranians…will be determined to break out or to sneak out, and that’s even more dangerous, to sneak out towards a bomb, it would take time to find out about it in the kind of inspection system that you can envisage as a product of these Lausanne talks.”

The “sneak out” is directly relevant to the issue of the PMD of Iran’s nuclear program. Without knowing the extent of Iran’s PMD, there would be no way for the international community to verify that Iran had actually complied with the terms of any agreement, such as shipping out its enriched uranium and decommissioning a certain number of centrifuges.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday doubled down on the frustration being expressed by Washington’s Middle East allies. ”This deal, as it appears to be emerging, bears out all of our fears, and even more than that,” he said.

[Photo: John Human / YouTube]