What will be the role of Iran in the Middle East in 2015? Commentators in the Arab world are divided over whether Iran’s involvement in events in the Middle East will be reduced or whether it will be increased in light of recent developments.
Commentators agree that in 2014 Iran continued to influence and get involved in the Arab world. Its military, logistical and financial support to Bashar al-Assad’s regime including the use of Hezbollah has continued. Iranian support and guidance, as well as legions of allied Hezbollah fighters, have been decisive in bolstering the regime of the embattled Syrian dictator, but the regime has lost control of more than a third of Syria and perhaps an even greater share of its population.
In Iraq, which like Iran has a Shiite majority, Tehran’s consolidated influence since the U.S. troop withdrawal in 2011 has contributed to sectarian polarization and left the local regime dependent on Iranian-backed militias to fight the Sunni extremist group ISIS.
In 2014, Iran also succeeded in strengthening its influence and control over Yemen by using the Houthis, which has become the strongest player in Yemen’s political arena. In addition to its growing influence in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, Tehran is actively trying to affect the course of internal Lebanese politics, and is renewing relations with Hamas and also strengthening its relations with the Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist organization, both located in Gaza.
Writing on the Egyptian website Tahrir News (Arabic link), Amer Saleh predicted that in 2015 the Islamic Republic will try to take over the Middle East. He mentioned Saudi Arabia as the main rival which will try to prevent Iran from imposing its hegemony over the Arab states.
Political analyst Khiri Hasan predicted that 2015 will be a year of reconciliation in the Middle East. However he strongly condemned the fact that Iran conducted a military exercise in recent days at a time that Arab countries are trying to send a message of peace. “Iran is a state that sponsors terrorism,” he said, stressing that what is happening in Iraq and Syria is a direct fault of Tehran.