Nicholas Saidel, the associate director of the University of Pennsylvania’s Institute for Strategic Threat Analysis and Response (ISTAR) argues today at the Israeli website Mida that Israel can weaken Iran by allying itself with various ethnic minorities currently suffering persecution in Iran. Observing that “Hamas’ power, to a large extent, relies on its relationship with Iran,” Saidel recommends that Israel reciprocate and take advantage of “the present conditions that favor revanchist and irredentist claims … in order to destroy or at the very least severely weaken, the Iranian regime.”
In particular Saidel recommends that Israel seek to ally itself with “the Iranian Kurds; the Iranian Azeris; the Ahwazi Arabs; and the Iranian Balochs.”
Israel’s ties with the Iraqi Kurds are well-established, and Saidel recommends that they extend to the Iranian based Free Life Party of Kurdistan (PEJAK). Allying with PEJAK could “assist Israel in espionage and sabotage efforts from within Iran, and [provide] intelligence related to Iran’s nuclear program.”
The Azeris are the largest minority group within Iran, accounting for roughly 25% of the population. While the main separatist Azeri groups currently appear to lean towards non-violent protest, Saidel argues that “an armed rebellion could occur given ample external support and a rise in the current trend towards nationalist separatism.” Saidel also points to Israel’s ties the Azerbaijan, which “could be leveraged to foment armed Azeri struggles within Iran’s borders.”
The Ahwaz Arabs live in the Khuzestan province of western Iran, which sits on the Persian Gulf and hosts 90% of Iran’s natural resources. Though the Ahwazi are Shi’ite, they share sympathies with other Arabs and are involved in a number of separatist movements. Complicating matters for Iran, Siedal observes, “Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States would also like to see Ahwaz as an independent state and as a 7th member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).”
The Balochs live in Baluchistan, a territory in eastern Iran that spans both Iran and Pakistan, both of which persecute the Balochs. Saidel reports that Israel has formed “alliances with Baloch separatist movements inside Iran,” and suggests that Israel seek to disrupt the “proposed Iran-Pakistan natural gas pipeline,” which is planned to pass through Balochistan and provide Iran with billions in revenue.
Saidel concludes:
Iran is not as united or as naturally integrated as some Westerners presume. While Persia has ancient roots, modern Iran is an artificial state in that it is not comprised of mainly one nation. It is rather an amalgam of many ethnic groups, most of which suffer from harsh repression from the central government and which have responded to such aggression by resisting through armed struggle. Supplying weapons, training, and other types of military and humanitarian aid to these minorities will pave the way for Israel to have multiple military and intelligence footprints within Iran’s borders, and increase its ability to disrupt the machinations of the mullahs until the theocratic regime is severely weakened or toppled.
In Dare We Say it? The Mullahs Must Go, published in the December 2013 issue of The Tower Magazine, Michael Ledeen highlighted some of the military actions previously taken by opposition groups against the Iranian regime :
Opposition activities aren’t limited to words. Although rarely reported outside Iran, attacks on refineries and pipelines are pandemic. In the small oil-rich province of Ahwaz, for example, where the Arab population has been subjected to unusual cruelty, there have been six pipeline attacks this year alone. At the same time, the northern gas pipelines to Turkey (where anti-regime Kurdish forces are active) have been frequently bombed.
Regime assets are also a target. Last March, the opposition attacked two Revolutionary Guard Corps installations. One was Zarin Dasht, where missile fuel and warheads are manufactured. The other was Natanz, a major uranium enrichment center. The resulting explosion forced the entire complex to shut down. While invariably blamed on Israel or the United States, some of these spectacular attacks are actually carried out by the Iranian opposition, and serious analysts believe they are also responsible for at least some recent assassinations of nuclear physicists.
[Photo: kurdishrights / YouTube ]