An expanded roster of Yemen-based allies would give Tehran a lever against the U.S., which relies on Yemen’s government as both a hedge against Iran and a partner against al Qaeda-linked militants in Yemen. Iran could also turn to clients in Yemen as Syria’s war poses an existential threat to one of Tehran’s biggest regional allies, the Damascus government of President Bashar al-Assad.

“If the south of Yemen were to break away and become an ally of the Iranians, it would be a major strategic gain for Tehran,” said Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow and director of the Brookings’ Intelligence Project, part of the Brookings’ Institute. “It might more than compensate for the loss of Syria if Assad’s government falls.”

In addition to fomenting internal instability in a Gulf state – something that Gulf countries have accused Iran of doing across the region – control over southern Yemen would provide Iran with a geopolitical upshot:

Western officials voiced concerns to the newspaper that Iran could “use military allies along Bab al-Mandab,” a strait that serves as one of the main chokepoints for the global shipping of oil. “If the Iranians are able to control Bab al Mandab and the Strait of Hormuz, they’d be able to have a chokehold on the global economy,” an unnamed Western diplomat told the paper.

[Photo: Al Jazeera English / Flickr]

“Hezbollah is serving Syria and Iran at the expense of the Lebanese,” ex-Prime Minister Fouad Siniora told reporters. He said President Michel Suleiman should launch an initiative “to stop the state’s collapse and give the Lebanese hope. Siniora, head of the Future Movement that is part of the “March 14” coalition opposed to Syrian influence in Lebanon, said March 14 had sent a memorandum to Suleiman calling for the deployment of the army on the northern border with Syria, and suggesting a role for United Nations peacekeepers there.

Diplomats and analysts have in recent days blamed Hezbollah for fomenting Sunni-Shiite and intra-Arab tensions across the region.

In Lebanon specifically,. Sectarian clashes in the southern Lebanese city of Sidon this week left six people injured and at least one dead. Meanwhile a Sunni jihadist group posted a video to YouTube announcing the formation of brigades designed to battle Hezbollah on Lebanese territory in retaliation for Hezbollah’s attacks on opposition forces inside Syria:

LEBANESE BRIGADE: Fadi Ahmad Abdul Qader shows the camera that he is a Lebanese citizen as he announces the formation of the Sunni Ahrar al-Kharoub, a brigade that will operate under the Free Syrian Army command “to support our people in Syria.” The battalion was established as a “reaction to Hezbollah’s public interference in Syria, and we promise him we will respond to his acts of killing against women and children.” Abdul Qader promises the response to Hezbollah will be both “inside and outside of Lebanon.” The brigade’s recruits then recite an oath to “defend our religion, honor, and land inside Lebanese and Syrian lands.” The brigade formation comes as four Lebanese Shiites were ambushed and killed in the Bekaa Valley on Sunday, with Hezbollah accusing Sunnis based in the nearby town of Arsal of being behind the assassinations.

Lebanese territory has been attacked by both sides of the Syrian war, and – after an attack by the regime earlier this month – the Lebanese army threatened to retaliate against future attacks. The dynamic has deepened fears that Lebanon may be formally dragged into the Syrian conflict, which has now killed some 90,000 people.

[Photo: bave baran max / Youtube]

Violence has spiked sharply in Iraq in recent months, with the death toll rising to levels not seen since 2008. Nearly 2,000 have been killed since the start of April, including more than 180 this month. The surge in bloodshed accompanies rising sectarian tensions within Iraq and growing concerns that its unrest is being fanned by the Syrian civil war raging next door…

One of the deadliest attacks came in the evening when a suicide bomber blew himself up inside a cafe packed with young people in the largely Shiite neighborhood of al-Ameen in southeastern Baghdad. The attack killed 11 and wounded 25, according to police.

Twin suicide bombings claimed 31 more lives on Tuesday in Baghdad. Today a Sunni politician in northern Iraq and four relatives were killed by a suicide bomber.

Sunnis and Shiites inside Iraq are trading tit-for-tat bombings and violence, and have reached out for assistance from across the country’s border. On the Sunni side, a cross-border alliance has formed between Iraqi extremists and elements in the Syrian opposition. On the Shiite side, Iran has long-established networks in the country, and this weekend a Shiite militia attacked an Iranian exile group at a camp outside of Baghdad.

[Photo: s1lang / Flickr]

“It is critical that our friends and allies across the Atlantic publicly declare Hezbollah a terror organization so that we can choke off the funding this dangerous terrorist group gets across Europe,” Congressman Doug Lamborn (CO-05) said. “It is urgent that we act now against this organization which has killed more Americans than any other after al-Qaeda because inaction is only emboldening them.”

Bulgaria’s foreign minister this month reemphasized a February government announcement that Hezbollah operatives were responsible for the July 2012 Burgas, Bulgaria bombing that killed six people. Also in February, Cypriot court convicted a confessed Hezbollah operative on terror-related charges.

Neither the evidence nor the U.S. call seem to have prevailed on the Austrians, Italians, or Czechs, who today voiced reservations about blacklisting Hezbollah:

Diplomats said the discussions were not over, but Britain may escalate the issue to a higher level, possibly to a July meeting of foreign ministers. “There was no agreement and the understanding was the issue will be discussed further, but not in this (group),” a diplomat said… Diplomats say a majority of the 27 EU member states, including France and Germany, back the British proposal. But unanimity is needed and Austria, the Czech Republic and Italy are among EU governments that have voiced reservations.

Analysts continue to express consternation regarding the dynamic by which a group that kills E.U. citizens via terror attacks on E.U. soil does not constitute a terror group for E.U. purposes.

[Photo: CongressmanLamborn / Youtube]

Fourth, progress cannot come without stability or stability without security. We have to be prepared to be strong in defence of our values. It is why Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions and export of terrorism round the region are a threat. We must be determined to confront and overcome that threat. Those that truly hold the power in Tehran must know of our determination and feel its vigour. Of course any choice involving military action is fraught. No one wants it. But a nuclear armed Iran is the worst choice and we shouldn’t make it.

In his address, Blair also advocated Western intervention in Syria and promoted the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Blair made a similar argument two years ago.

[Photo: World Economic Forum / Flickr]

The ongoing demonstrations have eroded Ankara’s legitimacy domestically and abroad. The European Union issued a declaration expressing concern over the government’s heavy-handed response. Erdogan reacted to the resolution by lashing out. Today the European Union told Erdogan’s to grow up:

The European Union has scrapped a parliamentary visit to Turkey following the Ankara government’s stinging criticism of an EU resolution about the handling of Turkish protests. European parliamentarian Elmar Brok said that Wednesday’s visit of the legislative delegation was postponed following last week’s rebuke and told Turkey that it `’should understand how to deal with criticism.”

Some 400 demonstrators have been arressted, and the government will press criminal charges against at least 28 of them.

Erdogan met yesterday with top Hamas leaders. The Turkish prime minister has in the past sought to burnish his image in the wake of diplomatic erosion by aligning himself with Hamas. Analysts will read the Hamas delegation’s visit at least partly as an appeal to domestic constituencies.

[Photo: Avala / Wiki Commons]

Opponents of Islamist President Mohammed Morsi are convinced that this is the best and perhaps the last opportunity to drive him from power… Morsi’s Islamist backers have vowed to defend the president with counter-demonstrations. Police have signaled they want to stay out of the conflict. The powerful military, widely suspected to be at odds with the president, is keeping its cards close to its chest. As a result, fears are high of potential violence on the day, the anniversary of Morsi’s 2012 inauguration as Egypt’s first freely elected leader.

Clashes between the two factions across Egypt have already left more than 100 injured, and both Morsi’s presidential palace and the Muslim Brotherhood’s headquarters have been reinforced. 

Meanwhile, Egypt’s tourism minister resigned in response to the appointment by Morsi of Adel al-Khayat to be governor of Luxor. Khayat an Islamist closely linked to a 1997 terrorist attack on tourists in Luxor, and his appointment as governor was taken as… insensitive:

Hesham Zazou said he “cannot continue in the role of tourism minister” a day after the appointment of Adel al-Khayat, a member of the political arm of ex-Islamic militant group Gamaa Islamiya, and other Islamist governors triggered unrest in several provinces. Gamaa Islamiya claimed responsibility for an attack on a major tourist attraction in the southern city of Luxor that killed 58 foreign tourists in 1997.

Prime Minister Hesham Qandil refused to accept Zazou’s resignation and asked him to remain in his post until the situation is reviewed, ministry spokeswoman Rasha al-Azaizy told the official MENA news agency. But she said Zazou insisted he would cease to work “as long as the new governor remains in his post, greatly harming tourism in Egypt generally and in Luxor specifically”.

Khayat was one of 17 governors appointed by Morsi to various regions around Egypt. Among the group were seven Muslim Brotherhood figures. Residents in many of the affected regions greeted the appointments with protests.

[Photo: Blueshade / Wiki Commons]

Arabic media outlets are now suggesting that the popular anger directed against the delegation was more substantial than originally reported, and that the delegation was forced to leave Egypt ahead of schedule for safety reasons.

Reports describe thousands of students and veterans attempting to storm the hotel, with hotel workers succeeding in closing the doors only after some protesters broke through. Other sources had Hamas political bureau Khaled Mashaal escaping the hotel via the back door, leaving behind Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and the rest of the delegation. Demonstrators called for the delegation to be tried and arrested.

Many Egyptians, including large swaths of Egypt’s powerful military echelon, blame Hamas for facilitating attacks and kidnappings in the Sinai Peninsula. Hamas has been blamed both for maintaining tunnels between the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip and the Egyptian-controlled Sinai Peninsula, which are used by jihadists to transfer personnel and materials, and for directly fomenting Egyptian unrest stretching back to the 2011 Egyptian Arab Spring.

The Egyptian government temporarily closed the border crossing between Egypt and the Sinai after a spectacular August 2012 attack in which 16 Egyptian security officers were killed. Angry Egyptian protesters blocked the crossing again after the May 2013 kidnapping of seven Egyptian security officials.

Hamas has struggled to rebuild its shattered image. The protesters who besieged the Hamas delegation this week called for the Hamas officials to be captured and then swapped in exchange for kidnapped Egyptians still being held by Sinai terror groups.

[Photo: IranianTVOnline / YouTube]

Now, Sheikh Qaradawi, who once described Hassan Nasrallah and Hezbollah as heroes, describes Hezbollah as the party of Satan, and sees Nasrallah as a dangerous despot to the Muslim nation. Azhar scholars in Cairo attack Bashar Al-Assad’s regime and Hezbollah. Qaradawi praises Saudi scholars’ early stance in which they warned against Hezbollah and its hidden agenda against the Sunnis.

What did Nasrallah and his followers gain from preferring velayat-e faqih to Shi’ite Arabs? Iran, at worst, will go back inside its borders and return to its linguistic, cultural and geographic framework, because it is a complete nation. But what would Arab Shi’ites do, when they are part of the Arab fabric, or even the Muslim fabric, from Pakistan and India in the east, to Lebanon in the west, and from central Asia in the north, to Yemen in the south, not to mention in the diaspora in Europe, what would those do when the war has ended?

How much damage is being caused by Nasrallah to the future of coexistence in the Islamic world? This question is especially urgent as fatwas to support the oppressed are being issued in Indonesia in the Islamic Far East.

Velayat-e faqih – “guardianship of the jurisprudent” – is the legal and religious principle upon which the Islamic Republic of Iran was founded, under which authority is vested with the Supreme Leader. It has been explicitly and repeatedly embraced by Hezbollah.

The implication is that not just Hezbollah, but also Iran, is responsible for fomenting tensions between Sunnis and Shiite Arabs.

Hezbollah has made ‘protecting’ the Sayyidah Zaynab Mosque a central pretext for pouring forces into Syria. Iranian officials seem to have adopted the same line:

Following Lebanese Hizballah’s official May recognition of their full-involvement in Syria, it would appear that Iran is not only becoming more open about their involvement, but also utilizing many of the same narrative points first honed by its regional Shia proxies… In June, three IRGC members were claimed by Iranian sources to have been killed while operating around Damascus’s Saydah Zaynab Shrine. Proclaiming IRGC members have been killed defending the shrine recycles the exact narrative Lebanese Hizballah and other Iraqi Shia groups have been utilizing for many months. This line also demonstrates that Tehran has become more comfortable with using sectarian-based messaging to convey why it is willing to lose men in the Syrian war.

[Photo: EuroNews / YouTube]

Heavy fighting resumed around the northern Syrian town of Aleppo, where rebels, buoyed by Obama’s decision last week to arm them, tried to block an advance into the north by President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, who are supplied by Moscow. In new evidence of growing foreign support for the rebels, a Gulf source told Reuters Saudi Arabia had equipped fighters for the first time with shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, their most urgent request. Rebels said Riyadh had also sent them anti-tank missiles… After months of indecision, the Obama administration announced it would arm the rebels because Assad’s forces had crossed a “red line” by using nerve gas. That has put Washington on the opposite side of the two-year-old civil war from its Cold War foe Moscow, which supplies weapons to Assad.

It is unclear if the Saudi move to arm the rebels was encouraged by the American decision to support the rebels openly. Another report identifies identifies France as facilitating weapons transfers:

The shoulder-fired weapons were obtained mostly from suppliers in France and Belgium, the source told Reuters. France had paid for the transport of the weapons to the region. The supplies were intended for General Salim Idriss, leader of the Supreme Military Council of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), who was still the kingdom’s main “point man” in the opposition, the source said. The Gulf source said without elaborating that the kingdom had begun taking a more active role in the Syrian conflict in recent weeks due to the intensification of the conflict.

Meanwhile at the G8 summit – where Presidents Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin held a chilly summit – there was no specific mention of Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad or his Hezbollah in the final summit communique [PDF]:

We reiterate our condemnation of terrorism in all its forms and manifestations, and wherever it occurs. We remain concerned about the increasingly fragmented and geographically diverse threat posed by terrorist groups including al-Qaeda and its affiliates. None of us are immune: since Camp David every G8 partner has been directly affected by acts of terrorism, either at home or overseas. We recognise the valuable leadership role of the UN, including through its Global Counter Terrorism Strategy, the work of the Roma Lyon Group and the importance of the Global Counter Terrorism Forum (GCTF). We are committed to working together to reduce the risk of terrorism for our own citizens, including from home-grown terrorism, and for our partners overseas. Our response must be robust, intelligent and based on a comprehensive approach, respecting human rights and the rule of law, which counters radicalisation, violent extremism and terrorist financing (including flows channelled through off-shore jurisdictions), and which tackles the conditions and grievances that terrorists seek to exploit.

The vague wording of the statement was taken as evidence that Russia had vociferously defended the Syrian regime, to which it provides material, diplomatic, and logistical support.

[Photo: Oxfam International / Flickr]